A third of your ad budget isn't working.
We find it.
We build a custom marketing mix model of your whole business, online and offline, then run incrementality tests that prove it. Picture your next budget meeting: you know exactly which channels earn their keep and which don't. No arguments. No caveats. Most clients free up to 35% of your budget without losing a single sale — and never look at a platform report the same way again.
Two-week audit · senior team only · no obligation
Per-channel spend verdicts — illustrative
The problem
Why the wasted third stays hidden.
The board asks which half of the marketing budget is working — and the honest answer is that nobody knows. A hundred years ago, John Wanamaker admitted it: “Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted. The trouble is, I don’t know which half.” Three things keep it that way.
Ad platforms grade their own homework
Google says the sale came from Google. Facebook says it came from Facebook. Both claim the same customer — so every report flatters the platform that wrote it.
Tracking tools only see online clicks
Click-based tools can’t see your TV ads, radio spots, billboards, or word of mouth. And they can’t tell a sale your ads caused from one that was coming anyway. That’s why we don’t use them.
Nobody counts what was coming anyway
Some sales need zero ads: your regulars, your busy season, the holidays, a strong economy. Until you separate that baseline, you can’t know what your ads added.
The transformation
Nobody buys a measurement model.
They buy what their job looks like after.
“I think it’s working.”
“I know what every dollar does.”
Budget meetings end in arguments.
Budget meetings end in decisions.
Forecasts are hopes with decimals.
Forecasts you can defend to the board.
That's the real product. Not a dashboard — the end of the guessing. The freed-up budget is just the bonus.
The system
One model at the centre. Everything else sharpens it.
A testing platform can prove a channel works but cannot plan your budget. A model can plan your budget but nobody checks it. We run the loop — and every turn makes the next answer sharper.
The Model
“Where is my money actually going?”
A model of your whole business — online and offline.
What each channel really contributes, what would have sold anyway, and where each channel stops paying off. Built for your business, and it has to predict months it never saw before anyone acts on it.
Hover the diagram
How we find it
Four tools. One answer: where your money should go.
Your ads don't run in a bubble, so we don't measure them in one. Every channel — and everything else that moves your sales.
See where each dollar stops working
We build a custom model of your business that shows what each channel returns at every spending level. Every channel has a point where the next dollar buys almost nothing. We show you that point — and which side of it you’re on.
- A verdict for every channel: cut, hold, or grow
- Where each channel stops paying off
- What-if plans before you move a dollar
Count what would have happened anyway
We calculate the sales you’d get with zero ads: your regulars, your seasons, holidays, the economy, even what people say about you. Built for your world — not a template.
- Your true no-ads baseline, separated out
- Seasons, holidays, and peak moments built in
- The economy and customer mood accounted for
Prove it in the real world
We run controlled tests — ads on in some regions, off in others — and watch what changes. The model has to match reality before you act on a single number.
- Real on/off tests in real markets
- Proof of cause, not correlation
- Numbers finance and marketing both trust
One view of everything
TV, radio, search, social, billboards, email — online and offline in one set of numbers. No last-click guesses. No finger-pointing between channels. Refreshed every quarter and run by your team.
- Online and offline in a single view
- Forecasts that include the world around you
- A quarterly plan your team runs itself
The evidence
This is what finding it looks like.
Every channel has a point where more money stops helping. Past it, extra dollars are waste. Before it, you're leaving growth on the table. Hover a channel to see its curve — and where you'd sit on it.
Typical outcome: up to 35% of budget reclaimed from channels that stopped paying off, moved into channels with room to grow — with no drop in sales.
Branded Search
Over-invested · 34 pts beyond optimalIllustrative saturation curves — each client model is custom-built
Incrementality
Then we turn it offand prove it.
A model is an argument. So we stop arguing. We switch a channel off in a handful of your markets, leave the rest running, and watch what happens to total sales.
Whatever gap opens up is what that channel was really worth. Not attributed. Observed.
See how a test worksYour number
How much of your budget is in the wrong place?
Three numbers you already know. Concentrated budgets get scaled hardest, and offline spend is invisible to click-based reporting — so those are the two things that move the estimate.
Find your wasted third
Likely sitting in the wrong place
$5M
About 20% of your budget. Concentrated spend gets scaled hardest, and the 20% you run offline is invisible to click-based reporting — so it gets set by guesswork.
Find the real numberEstimate from what we typically find — not a promise. Your real number comes from the two-week audit.
Proof
What happens when every dollar has a job.
Of the budget is in the wrong place
That is what our first run usually finds. Money sitting in channels that stopped paying off, while other channels are starved. We show you which is which, and how much to move.
Error on data the model never saw
We hold back the last three to six months, then make the model predict it. If we cannot get under 10% error, we give your money back. We will not ship a model we do not trust.
We test the recommendation, not just the model
Match-market tests run the plan for real — the change in some markets, not in others. You see the money work before you move all of it.
Plus several pharmaceutical brands we are not able to name.
How we work
From guessing to knowing in one quarter.
Five steps, about three months — from first audit to a system your own team runs. Your first real-world test results land by week eight.
Audit
Two weeks. We gather your data and show you how far your current numbers sit from the truth — and which channels look suspicious.
Connect
Every channel, online and offline. Your sales data. The outside forces that move your business. All in one place.
Model
We build your custom model — your baseline, your seasons, your economy, your channels. Tuned to your business, nobody else’s.
Test
We check the model against the real world with controlled experiments. When the two disagree, we find out why.
Act
You get a plain-English plan: what to cut, what to grow. Our first run usually finds up to 35% of the budget in the wrong place. Your team runs it from there.
Read the thinking
We publish the method, not just the pitch.
Get started
Find your wasted third.
Here's what happens next: a 30-minute call, then two weeks later you're looking at your channel-by-channel verdict — what earns its keep, what doesn't, and how to free up to 35% of your budget without losing sales. And if we can't find real waste? We'll tell you.
30-minute intro call · senior team only · no obligation · hello@mediamix.ai